Recent research from the University of Surrey has underscored the effects of climate change on the spread of Salmonella, building on prior findings that weather changes are catalysing the dissemination of severe diarrhoeal diseases.
The investigation, conducted by the University’s School of Veterinary Medicine, delved into the influence of various weather conditions on the transmission of Salmonella—a primary culprit behind foodborne illnesses in Europe, responsible for roughly one-third of such outbreaks.
Salmonella, a bacterial species notorious for causing food poisoning, thrives in the intestines of both animals and humans. It poses a risk of contaminating food through improper cooking or handling practices. The infection it triggers can lead to diarrhoea, fever, and abdominal cramps, with a higher incidence in regions lacking adequate sanitation and hygiene measures.
Published in the Journal of Infection, this study analysed data from the UK Health Security Agency detailing confirmed Salmonella cases in England and Wales from 2000 to 2016, juxtaposed with meteorological data from the Met Office for the same period. Researchers examined 14 distinct weather variables, offering a comprehensive view that considers the collective influence of these factors on Salmonella outbreaks. This approach allowed for a detailed assessment of the risks associated with salmonellosis based on local weather conditions in the days leading up to an outbreak.
The findings pointed to several key weather conditions linked to an uptick in Salmonella cases, regardless of geographic location. These included warmer temperatures (above 10 degrees Celsius), relative humidity, dewpoint temperatures ranging from 7 to 10 degrees Celsius, and prolonged daylight hours exceeding 12 to 15 hours. The relevance of these factors was further corroborated through data analysis from the Netherlands.
Dr Gianni Lo Iacono, Senior Lecturer in Biostatistics and Epidemiology at the University of Surrey, commented on the research’s implications: “The model employed for data analysis shows promise, as the results were consistent across England, Wales, and, independently, in the Netherlands, indicating its potential applicability in other European and high-income countries. This could pave the way for gaining new insights into Salmonella incidences and exploring its impact in diverse climatic and socio-economic settings, such as tropical countries.”
Dr Laura Gonzalez Villeta, the lead author and a university researcher, emphasised the significance of the study: “This research highlights the crucial role that weather conditions play in Salmonella outbreaks. It provides a valuable predictive tool that could aid in forecasting future risks and shaping targeted interventions, especially in the face of ongoing climate change.”
More information: Laura Gonzalez Villeta et al, Identifying key weather factors influencing human salmonellosis: A conditional incidence analysis in England, Wales, and the Netherlands, Journal of Infection. DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2025.106410
Journal information: Journal of Infection Provided by University of Surrey
