One of the most significant achievements of the twentieth century has been the steady rise in life expectancy, driven by major improvements in living standards, nutrition, sanitation, and medical care across the globe. This demographic shift, while representing remarkable progress, has also introduced new public health challenges. As populations age, a growing proportion of individuals live with chronic and acute conditions that impair the function of vital organs. These age-related health problems increasingly strain caregivers, healthcare systems, and broader economic development, particularly in countries experiencing rapid population ageing.
Pancreatitis, an inflammatory disorder of the pancreas, exemplifies the type of condition that disproportionately affects older adults. It commonly presents with acute abdominal pain, nausea, jaundice, and, in severe cases, haemodynamic instability or shock. In elderly patients, pancreatitis is frequently complicated by coexisting illnesses such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease. These comorbidities make clinical management more complex, limit treatment options, and often prolong recovery, increasing both healthcare utilisation and the risk of poor outcomes.
Understanding how the burden of pancreatitis among older adults has changed over time is, therefore, essential for effective health planning. To address this need, researchers from the Department of Critical Care Medicine at Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, conducted a comprehensive analysis of global trends in pancreatitis incidence and mortality. Led by Professor Dechang Chen and Professor Jiao Liu, the team used data from the 2021 edition of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. Their findings were published online in the Journal of Intensive Medicine on 24 December 2025.
Professor Chen explained that the study was motivated by limitations in earlier research, which has largely focused on national or regional patterns. Such approaches may fail to capture global trends and can be influenced by complex interactions between age, time period, and birth cohort. By drawing on the GBD 2021 dataset, the researchers aimed to provide a more reliable global perspective and to establish a stronger evidence base for the development of scientifically grounded prevention and intervention strategies tailored to ageing populations.
The study examined individuals aged 65 years and older across 204 territories, spanning six evenly spaced periods between 1992 and 2021. Additional analyses explored variation across 21 geographical regions and five sociodemographic index quintiles. The results revealed that, although the absolute number of pancreatitis-related deaths among older adults increased, the total number of cases declined over time. The age-standardised incidence rate fell from 100.21 per 100,000 population in 1992 to 85.20 in 2021, while the age-standardised death rate decreased from 9.01 to 7.97 per 100,000.
However, these overall trends concealed substantial socioeconomic and demographic differences. High-SDI countries experienced marked reductions in incidence, whereas the lowest SDI quintile showed a significant increase. Middle-SDI regions exhibited relatively low rates until the mid-2000s, followed by gradual rises thereafter. Gender differences were also evident in certain settings. Looking ahead, Professor Chen noted that while age-standardised rates are expected to decline, the absolute number of cases and deaths will continue to rise due to population growth and ageing. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted public health strategies, improved diagnostic capacity, and equitable access to care to manage the growing burden of pancreatitis among older adults.
More information: Hang Qian et al, Global, regional, and national burdens of pancreatitis in adults aged ≥65 years from 1992 to 2021: A trends analysis using data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study, Journal of Intensive Medicine. DOI: 10.1016/j.jointm.2025.08.010
