Cutting average alcohol consumption in Australia by just one litre per person each year could lead to a meaningful reduction in deaths from several primary cancers, particularly among older adults, according to new research led by La Trobe University.
Drawing on more than seven decades of national data covering mortality, alcohol and tobacco consumption, and health expenditure, the researchers analysed how long-term, population-level alcohol use in Australia is linked to deaths from four cancers known to be associated with drinking. Their analysis focused on the cumulative effects of alcohol exposure over time rather than short-term patterns of consumption.
The findings, published in the British Journal of Cancer, indicate that alcohol plays a causal role in a substantial proportion of cancer deaths. The study estimates that alcohol exposure contributes to around 45 per cent of male deaths from upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancers and approximately 21 per cent of female deaths from the same cancers. It also attributes about 48 per cent of male liver cancer deaths to alcohol, along with roughly 15 per cent of male and 4 per cent of female colorectal cancer deaths. In addition, alcohol was linked to an estimated 14 per cent of female breast cancer deaths.
According to the researchers, these proportions are higher than those reported in earlier Australian studies, mainly because this analysis captures the accumulated impact of drinking across many decades. The strongest associations between alcohol and cancer mortality were observed among people aged 50 and over. The authors caution that, as Australia’s population continues to age and older generations tend to drink more than younger cohorts, alcohol-related cancer deaths could increase unless effective preventive measures are implemented. They point to policy options such as closing alcohol tax loopholes and introducing more transparent warning labels as potential interventions.
The study also modelled the potential benefits of modest reductions in drinking. It found that lowering alcohol consumption by one litre per person each year could result in notable declines in alcohol-related cancer deaths. These include reductions of around 3.6 per cent in UADT cancer deaths among men and 3.4 per cent among women, nearly 3.9 per cent fewer male liver cancer deaths, and smaller but still meaningful decreases in colorectal cancer deaths for both sexes. Female breast cancer deaths could fall by an estimated 2.3 per cent under the same scenario.
Lead author Associate Professor Jason Jiang, from La Trobe University’s Department of Public Health and Centre for Alcohol Policy Research, said the study was the first in Australia to examine links between alcohol consumption and cancer mortality using long-term aggregate data. He said the results provide strong evidence that lowering alcohol consumption across the population could significantly reduce deaths from UADT, colorectal, male liver and female breast cancers, particularly among older Australians.
The researchers argue that proven public health measures, including higher alcohol taxation, restrictions on availability and tighter limits on advertising, could deliver substantial reductions in cancer mortality. They also highlight the Australian Guidelines to Reduce Health Risk from Drinking Alcohol, which recommend that both men and women consume no more than 10 standard drinks per week and no more than four on any single day to reduce lifetime health risks. While the World Health Organization states that no level of alcohol consumption is entirely safe in relation to cancer risk, the authors note that wider adherence to existing drinking guidelines could still lead to a considerable reduction in alcohol-related cancers.
More information: Heng Jiang et al, Alcohol consumption and mortality from four alcohol-related cancers in Australia 1950-2018: a time series analysis, British Journal of Cancer. DOI: 10.1038/s41416-025-03273-1
Journal information: British Journal of Cancer Provided by La Trobe University
