Recent research findings suggest that emergency planners in Shanghai and New York City are under increasing scrutiny to safeguard elderly residents from the severe consequences of coastal flooding precipitated by storms and cyclones.
Both metropolises are acutely vulnerable to the ravages of storm-induced flooding, and a comparative analysis of their emergency management systems reveals marked disparities in their approaches to evacuating elderly individuals to safety.
Through an in-depth examination of emergency protocols within these cities, specialists have formulated a strategy for efficient evacuation that could potentially apply to other cities globally threatened by similar flood risks, including Mumbai, Bangkok, Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Miami, and Tokyo.
This innovative research, featuring contributions from the University of Birmingham, was published in Nature Water. The authors urge emergency planning bodies to establish additional local shelters to expedite the safe evacuation of those in flood-prone areas.
The study points out the discrepancy in evacuation travel times, noting that trips to evacuation sites in New York City generally take less than 20 minutes. This starkly contrasts with Shanghai, where evacuating flood-threatened areas can extend up to 3 to 4 hours due to a scarcity of accessible shelters in vulnerable communities.
Professor Nigel Wright of the University of Birmingham remarked on the vulnerability of peripheral neighbourhoods in coastal cities to storm-induced flooding, highlighting that despite these areas’ lower population densities, they often house groups with special needs, including older adults.
The contrast in evacuation strategies for older adults in Shanghai and New York City underscores the importance of strategic, risk-informed evacuation planning against storm flooding. The study offers valuable insights into making operational emergency evacuation decisions and suggests a template for crafting flood management policies for major coastal cities worldwide.
The researchers also identified potential challenges in evacuating people from offshore islands, such as Shanghai’s Chongming Island, where emergency responders face difficulties promptly reaching evacuees. The centralisation of shelters and uneven distribution of vulnerable populations leave such high-risk neighbourhoods inadequately served during extreme flood events.
Amid the backdrop of increasing coastal population sensitivity to flood disasters, China and the United States are enhancing their emergency management strategies through better organisation and evacuation planning. The evolving nature of coastal flood risk necessitates further research into evacuation strategies, factoring in climate change, coastal urbanisation, and adaptation strategies.
The phenomenon of coastal flooding, exacerbated by storm surges, is a global issue. Incidents are becoming more frequent and severe due to factors such as climate-induced sea-level rise, changes in storm patterns, and human activities. Notable flood disasters in cities like Shanghai, New Orleans, New York City, and Macau highlight the acute vulnerability of coastal cities to such events.
Projections for the 136 largest coastal cities indicate a more than threefold increase in the population exposed to centennial coastal floods from 38.5 million in 2005 to 150 million by the 2070s, with potential economic damages escalating to more than ten times the current figures by 2050.
In Europe, without mitigative action, the expected annual exposure of individuals to coastal flooding could surge from 10,200 to 3.65 million by 2100, primarily affecting major urban areas due to rising sea levels and ongoing socioeconomic development.
More information: Jie Yin et al, Strategic storm flood evacuation planning for large coastal cities enables more effective transfer of elderly populations, Nature Water. DOI: 10.1038/s44221-024-00210-z
Journal information: Nature Water Provided by University of Birmingham
