According to new research, reducing processed meat consumption by approximately one-third could help prevent over 350,000 cases of diabetes in the US within a decade.
A research team’s findings suggest that reducing processed meat intake among US adults by 30%—equivalent to about ten slices of bacon weekly—could also significantly decrease cardiovascular disease and colorectal cancer cases.
This team, comprising experts from the University of Edinburgh’s Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Systems and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, has devised a simulation tool to assess the health impacts of lowering the consumption of processed and unprocessed red meat.
Historically, numerous studies have established a correlation between high processed meat consumption and an increased risk of chronic diseases; however, few have assessed the impact across multiple health outcomes. Although some earlier studies have indicated that unprocessed red meat might contribute to the risk of chronic diseases, the evidence remains inconclusive.
Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) national health survey, the researchers created a simulated, representative sample of the US adult population through a technique known as microsimulation.
This innovative microsimulation is the first to estimate the health effects of varying reductions in the consumption of processed and unprocessed red meat—ranging from 5 to 100%—on various health outcomes across the US.
The study quantified the potential reductions in adults’ risk of developing diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer, and even death from these conditions. The analysis was conducted on the overall population and examined separately by age, sex, household income, and ethnicity.
The research found that a 30% reduction in processed meat consumption could not only prevent over 350,000 diabetes cases but also reduce cardiovascular disease and colorectal cancer cases by 92,500 and 53,300, respectively, over ten years.
Particularly notable health benefits were observed among white males and individuals with annual household incomes ranging from $25,000 to $55,000.
The study also explored the effects of solely reducing unprocessed red meat intake and the combined reduction of both meat types.
A 30% decrease in processed and unprocessed red meat consumption could prevent an estimated 1,073,400 diabetes cases, 382,400 cardiovascular disease cases, and 84,400 colorectal cancer cases.
Reducing unprocessed red meat intake by 30%—equivalent to consuming one fewer quarter-pound beef burger per week—could reduce over 732,000 diabetes cases and decrease cardiovascular disease and colorectal cancer cases by 291,500 and 32,200, respectively.
The findings highlighted that more excellent disease prevention could be achieved by reducing unprocessed red meat intake rather than processed meat. This is likely because the average daily consumption of unprocessed red meat is higher than that of processed meat—47 g per day compared to 29g per day.
Given the relatively sparse data on the impact of unprocessed red meat on chronic disease risk, the researchers caution that these findings should be interpreted carefully and underscore the need for further research.
The study, published in The Lancet Planetary Health journal, received funding from The Wellcome Trust.
Professor Lindsay Jaacks, Personal Chair of Global Health and Nutrition at the University of Edinburgh and co-author of the study, emphasised that cutting meat consumption is recommended by national and international organisations, such as the Climate Change Committee in the UK and the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. She noted that the research supports the notion that dietary changes could confer substantial health benefits in the US, thus presenting a dual benefit for human health and the environment.
More information: Joe Kennedy et al, Estimated effects of reductions in processed meat consumption and unprocessed red meat consumption on occurrences of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer, and mortality in the USA: a microsimulation study, The Lancet Planetary Health. DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00118-9
Journal information: The Lancet Planetary Health Provided by University of Edinburgh
