A Nature Communications paper suggests that up to 246 million older adults globally could face dangerous acute heat exposure by 2050, particularly in Asia and Africa. The study’s findings are crucial for informing regional heat risk assessments and public health decision-making. An interactive visualization dashboard illustrates current and projected demographic shifts and heat-related risks across countries worldwide.
The world’s population is rapidly ageing, with the number of people aged over 60 set to double to nearly 2.1 billion by 2050. This demographic shift is especially pronounced in lower- and middle-income countries, where extreme weather events driven by climate change pose significant risks. The vulnerability of older adults to increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves threatens their physical health, particularly as they are more susceptible to heat-related illnesses and exacerbated health conditions, highlighting the urgent need for climate adaptation planning and policy interventions.
While extensive research has explored the individual health impacts of extreme heat on older adults, less attention has been paid to population-level heat exposure. Giacomo Falchetta led a team of international researchers, including experts from the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Boston University, and the Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, who quantified chronic and acute heat exposures across different age groups globally.
“By 2050, over 23% of the global population aged over 69 could be living in climates where acute heat exposure exceeds the critical threshold of 37.5°C, compared to 14% in 2020,” commented Giacomo Falchetta, a researcher at CMCC and Ca’ Foscari University of Venice. The study also predicts an additional 177 to 246 million older adults may face dangerous acute heat exposure by mid-century. “Asia and Africa are expected to bear the brunt of these effects, with potentially the least capacity to adapt,” added Deborah Carr, Professor of Sociology at Boston University and co-author of the study.
The researchers underscored that regions experiencing an ageing population and increasing heat exposure will likely experience heightened demands for social and healthcare services. The projected increase in heat-related risks could potentially strain healthcare services, necessitating innovative policy interventions and a proactive approach to climate adaptation planning. These findings are critical for informing health assessments and climate adaptation planning in vulnerable regions across the globe.
More information: Giacomo Falchetta et al, Global projections of heat exposure of older adults, Nature Communications. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47197-5
Journal information: Nature Communications Provided by CMCC Foundation
